Clinton's Change....

Here we go again...

Rambling after week 1...

So week one is over....the Vikings blew up the old men from Big D and will have a huge week 2 matchup against McSuck and T.O.  Should be a great MNF game, at least until John Madden ruins it.  And, speaking of MNF, what ever happened to the good old days of Melissa Stark?  You all have a patriotic duty to write your local ABC affiliate and request, no, demand that Missy be brought back to the Monday sidelines....our sanity, and their ratings may depend on that.

Man, I thought we waited till at least October before Jugs needed his pacemaker to kick in.  Not this year...

For those of you who don't know (and I can't imagine how that would be if you are reading this drivel), our reigning league champion* Team Juice (soon to be known as Team Steinbrenner) pulled the strings on a deal with Team Nookie (aka Team Quitter) for the following:

Juice got Clinton Portis and a 2005 5th round pick
Nookie got Tiki Barber and a 2005 1st round pick

Much has been said on this (http://www.bigffbl.com/phpBB) by a few of our esteemed league members, but not all have weighed in.  Since I am one of the card carrying BIGFFBL math/Excel nerds, I will devote pretty much the majority of this column to a couple of things....a) my breakdown of the trade, b) a historical look at Juice/Nookie/Jugs/Mike, and c) a statistical look at the BIGFFBL over the years.

So first on the list is the trade.  Jugs and Mike have both voiced their opposition to the move while Juice and Ben have both supported it.  Let me say this first....I HAVE 100% FAITH THAT NOTHING FUNNY IS GOING ON UNDER THE TABLE (unlike last year, but the 'Rolling Greens' debacle is a different story).  So now I suppose since I typed that, some will say that I am in on this too.....sure, and I know where the WMD's are, who was on the grassy knoll and Jimmy Hoffa's current location too.  Now that I've got some particular heart rates a-flutter, let me say this....I HAVE NO PROBLEM AT ALL WITH THIS DEAL.  (On a side note, someone please give Jugs a call to make sure he hasn't keeled over after reading this...)

So how can that be?  I think those opposed to this trade are 1) pissed cause they didn't make the move Juice did, 2) not looking at the whole deal and 3) way way way too worked up about this.

Juice made a hell of a deal.....for this year.  Yes he scored 149 this week and he added Portis to that team, but let's break down Juice's week 1.  He got what some may argue as season high weeks out of Daniel Graham, Isaac Bruce and Tiki Barber.  He got a dozen from a kicker and 9 more from his D.  Throw in Eric Moulds and LT and that makes for what will most likely be Juice's high for the season, and possibly the league high for the season.  So why did he even need to make the move?  Looking at this from Juice's size 11's, here's my take.  I see Tiki as having a high trade bait value at this point.  I also see Nookie willing to give up a top notch RB for fair compensation.  So, why not sacrifice a little next year in order to be the first repeat champion and win a few bucks.  Really, after winning the league two years in a row, Juice's entry fee is covered damn near through the second Clinton administration (assuming 'Rolling Greens' didn't cost him anything).  But what is he giving up?  No first rounder in 2005 sucks, but after winning the championship, that is only the 12th pick anyway, so no huge loss since Juice will have LT as a keeper anyway.  He's a pick in the hole, but still has 2 more BIGFFBL championships than Jugs, Smith, Mike, Jason, Suomala, Rich and Jonny.  It might make for a rough year, but with his drafting skills, he should pick up the slack and be competitive.

Now, to look at it from Ben's side.  Can you say 'injury bug'?  It must have been a bit contagious in the Carlson house last weekend since Dyson, Nedney, Rogers, Vick, Shaun Alexander, Steve Smith and Suggs all have had injury issues.  So what does Ben do....he makes the decision to put his stud keeper up on the block with a high price.  He has the opportunity to dump Portis and get a 1st rounder AND a pass catching starting RB for a team that will be behind all season.  I'm not saying that Tiki Torch will outscore Clinton, but I don't think you guys are giving Ben the credit deserved on this trade.  Sure Ben doesn't have a keeper.....well, he DOES since he still keeps anyone he wants off his roster PLUS he gets two 1st rounders.  That could mean that Ben will have three players before Jugs has two....which is a big deal no matter how Superior you may be.  What the rest of you, including Jugs, may not know is that Ben has decided to use his second FA pickup on a Mr. Ricky Williams....and not the one of Indy.  So, let's just hypothetically say that Ricky runs out of money somehow (weed can get expensive, even for ex pro athletes) and needs some income.  Bam, Ben has Oakland's 2005 week 5-16 stud RB AND two 1st round picks.  Gamble?  Of course, but no less a gamble than attempting to battle for the Husky Division against Wong and Tang this year.

So, if one looks at the full picture of this trade, it is actually a toss up in my mind.  Sure it helps Juice now, but it really helps Ben later...

So now let's dive into some stats (*using data from 2000-Current for averages and statistical parameters) for the owners that are making the most noise about this trade.  For reference, the league's average score for this data is 97.6 points with a standard deviation of 23.4, that gives a range of +/- 1 Standard Deviation to be 74.1 to 121.0.  I'm just putting these numbers out there as an unbiased set of data for you guys to make conclusions as to who has been successful in this league over the past 4+ seasons.

Sadida's 21ers, 5th year, 5148 points, 90.3 points per week, 23-34 (0.404) Career Record.  13 weeks below 74.1 and 3 weeks above 121.0.

Fantasy Superior, 7th year, 8045 points, 100.8 points per week, 42-43 (0.494) Career Record.  8 weeks below 74.1 and 11 weeks above 121.0.

Team Nookie, 6th year, 6956 points, 104.5 points per week, 38-32 (0.543) Career Record.  5 weeks below 74.1 and 12 weeks above 121.0.

Team Juice, 7th year, 8537 points, 106.6 points per week, 51-34 (0.600) Career Record.  3 weeks below 74.1 and 12 weeks above 121.0.

So my final topic for the evening has nothing to do with the trade, but is a look at some more interesting numbers from the BIGFFBL past.  It was noted to me that this past week 1 seemed like a very high scoring week with 10 of the 12 squads hitting 90+ for a league total of .  So, I went back to the big Excel sheet that has all our weekly points since 2000 to see how this week stacked up to some of the highest scoring weeks in our league's history and here's what the computer spit back at me.

BIGFFBL Top Points Weeks (2000-2004)

I also figured since I was already in the nerdery (funny how Microsoft doesn't recognize 'nerdery' as a word...you'd think they would out of any corporation out there, but I digress), I may as well look up the lowest five weeks, so here they are...

BIGFFBL Bottom Points Weeks (2000-2004)

So anyways, this past week was a high scorer (tied for 6th highest in the past 4+ seasons), but not the highest as you can see.

Interesting stuff if nothing else....

How about a few week 1 notes....Sucks to be Air JC, Team Nookie or a member of the Baltimore Ravens (although Deion losing is always a cool thing).

Bittersweetness?  What is when your team breaks their 24 game road losing streak but your top WR also breaks his collar bone.

So is this the geriatric league now?  Emmitt, Vinnie, Glenn, Bruce, Favre, C-Mart, Gibbs and Parcells....did I miss the daylight savings timesque turn back the calendar half a decade?

Finally, some things I think I think.....

My karma must not be up to snuff these days since my fantasy week 1 went 1-3 with a loss in our league after scoring 120 and a loss in the prestigious F**KERS by a single point to the Northland's top anchorman.....

As I finish this up....rumors are circulating of another blockbuster move in the BIGFFBL....more on that in next weeks edition of JC's Ramblings.

Need I say more?

BIGFFBL senior writer Jeremy Carlson sounds off whenever he feels like it on www.bigffbl.com