Keepers....
And a Little Lottery Talk...
From the healthy, Norton virus protected notebook of your commish.
Sunday July 25th,
2004 4.28 PM
"Gentlemen...start your engines"...
Since I couldn't let Jugs be the only one to put out some pre-draft thoughts, I've dusted off the old website and wasted some of my precious weekend as well contemplating the upcoming fantasy draft...
You can just sense when the fantasy season is sneaking up on you, there are many signs....an email or two from Jugs, a John Clayton/Sean Salisbury sighting and an upcoming milestone for the Suomalas.
Before I dive into the Keeper/Lottery topic I have to touch on the Ricky Williams situation. I saw the subject of Jugs email and I figured that it was Ricky Williams - IND, but ESPN's Trey verified that the dreds will no longer be seen poking out of the helmet in south FLA. I thought I had heard a strange noise early this morning and it must have been the collective cursing of all those teams out there banking on Ricky as a keeper....Wong's gotta be happy that we don't nail that down till draft night.
I do question if these types of decisions (Robert Smith as another example) are anomolies or if a trend will begin to emerge. Really, if you think about it, why would a guy like Ricky who has made just over a gazillion dollars risk his future with such a trivial thing as getting pounded 35 times each week? I think as these guys watch what guys like Muhammed Ali go through later in life as side effects of glory, more may hang them up earlier in their careers. I think there is more to come along these lines, but only time will tell...
Anyways, now let's get to some fantasy analysis. What I plan to do here is go over the probable draft order along with who I think will be kept - afterwords, I'll list the guys that may be available for the first round picks after the keepers are selected.
We'll start out with our riegning league champ and current holder of the Terry Egerdahl Memorial Cup, Team Juice. Juice has a whole stable of guys to choose from and he could throw four of them in a hat (P.Manning, Tomlinson, M.Faulk and R.Moss) and randomly go with one and he'd be all good I think...*sidenote here, not only do I have to put an initial in front of Moss and Faulk, but now that little bro is in the league it's 'P.Manning' from now on*. I don't think Juice will be using the hat method, but if he'd like to I'll gladly provide the hat. I'd pretty much bet the farm that Tomlinson will be his guy. In fact, unless LT decides to retire at the age of 25 and travel the Ukraine, I'll say with certainty now that Tomlinson will not be on the board for round 1.
Finishing second in '03 was fellow U-Dub'er, Team Nookie. Ben, who takes over the title as senior ready mix driver of the league for the summer, could also use my hat to pick between his two stud RBs, Portis and J.Lewis. If I were in his shoes, I would get a hair cut, then I would go on to take Jamal as my keeper. I think that Portis might have a monster season, but the key word is might. Moving to a new team can be tricky especially when the one you are leaving is Shanny's RB Factory. True that Gibbs likes to run the rock, but I'm pretty sure that Joe is about 103 now and might take a few games to get back in the grove.
LB Jonny took down the Fantasy Football Superior in the 3rd place match last year to win a few bucks and also to allow the rest of us to remind Jugs that he has yet to win a playoff game. Its a very tough call for who the LBs will retain for this year. Will it be McNair or Freddy or Henry? I think McNair is the smart move, but this leaves the LB's will little chance at getting one, much less two, quality fantasy RBs for the year. Jon could roll the dice will Freddy and hope that the passing threat of Bryon and Co. will cut down on the injury chances or he could go with Henry and hope that McGahee's time doesn't come (but I smell the fantasy killing RBBC out there in Buffalo). So if it was me....I'd go with Freddy, but I'm quite glad I don't have to make that call on draft night.
Now we come to Jugsie - aka: Fantasy Superior - aka: BIGFFBL Guru. Richie's short and sweet trashtalk this morning hit the nail on the head, but hey, Jugs has paid his dues and deserved to demolish the crappy division last year - I suspect that this year is Suomala's turn to win it and go 0-2 in the playoffs. So Jugs has a pretty easy call if you ask me....its between Priest, Edge and TO. I don't think there is much to decide though since El Priesto = muy bien (damn that stupid spanish teacher - I remember almost nothing except something about little bunny foo-foo - and that may have been from Senor....Rico, Juice, myself and anyone else in her class probably should have counseling at some point). Anyway, I go with Priest, but I would not bank on him as a keeper for '05 - I'd try to dump him on some unsuspecting league owner who is apt to pull the trigger on a poorly analyzed trade which we then tease him about (I think that is Mike's category).
After those four squads, we get into the teams that are in the lottery (number in here represents lottery tickets per team)...
Smitty's team (1) which may or may not be called "Sara Rules" this year and don pink as the team color - and if that is the case I believe we all get to give our league computer guy a kick in the cajones (unless of course this Sara is hot and Smith can prove it to his shallow minded brethren) - has not very much at all to choose from for a keeper. I know, surprise, surprise, but I'll leave the trade bashing to Jugsie. It is hard for me to even pick a guy I think would go in the 3rd round off this roster...but I'd imagine Smitty will look at either Trent Green, Dominick Davis or Chad Johnson (you know its bad when I have to type in the full first name of all the guys). Smith is lucky he has that high 2nd rounder cause man is he gonna need that just to get this team in the respectible category. And oh...I'd keep Davis out of those guys - but only cause of the RB scarcity stuff.
Up next is our new southern representative from the great state of Arizona, Rico "Goo" Cutts (2). Rumors fly rampant, but he 'might' be engaged and his old man 'might' have offered cash in exchange for an abduction, but that is not important to this column other than to fill a little space. Rico is looking at a pair of pretty damn good running backs to choose from in Deuce and Ahman. Who would you go with? Well, the experts out there on the web seem to be pointing at McAllister to have a huge year, I've seen him rated quite high (like #3 overall), but I'd go with Ahman. Why? Well, with Brettski on the downside of his peak years, the Pack has to play more of a controlled offensive game to continue to be successful. This points directly at Green. He is in his 7th year which is right about at the point where RB's will peak in this league. He will get a huge workload because the Pack will not blow out teams but they will be ahead which means starters are still in the 4th Q and they will grind out wins on the "Semi-Frozen" Tundra.
The elder statesman of the league is up next....and Jason's (4 - 1.5%) recent back issues/surgery reinforce the fact he is the most experienced of us all. Let me go out on a limb now and say that the Little Red Horse will end the year at 7-7....consistency is what this team is all about and how fitting that Jason has to choose from a couple pretty consistent performers in Steven Davis and Torry Holt. I don't think that Jason will spend much of his summer recovery time in thinking about this one....I wouldn't anyway. In 14 games last year, Stephen ran for 1444 yards on a 4.5 average....you do the math - that's good stuff. Then again, Torry did go for 117-1696-12, so a case could be made to keep him instead. As those of you still reading might have guessed, I'll always lean towards a RB in these cases so if I'm Jason I'd grab Stephen, a Premium Grain Belt, the remote control and a fresh ice pack for my back.
Wonger (8 - 3.1%) is up next. Can you spell disaster? Well, I hope so if you can read - assuming that I just got it right. Ok, so now that Wong is probably saying to himself that disaster is a strong word in times like these with the war and such, I'll say just lighten up and take this as fantasy ball. So we're back to disaster. When your top guy decides to retire, then that is a problem. Just FYI - and it is kinda interesting - here is Ricky Williams's path through the BIGFFBL over the years. 1999 (his rookie year in the league) - drafted #22 overall by none other than Mr. James Vernon Mahrer. 2000 - drafted #8 overall by Mr. Wong. 2001, 2002, 2003 - Mr. Wong's franchise designated keeper. I'm not doing the research now, but I can say with some confidence that this is the only player to be a franchises keeper in all three years we've done that. It probably would have been four in a row, but now it looks like Wong will have to go another route. It looks like its Dillion and Dillion alone left as a choice for Wong. I'd put it at about 5:4 if someone really wanted to bet on it.
The Michael Vick Show is up next....whoops I mean the 21ers (16 - 6.3%). I think that this keeper pick was solidified almost a year ago when Mike, who already had that Fav-re guy, chose Michael Vick and his broken leg with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round (over Torry Holt among others). But I guess you could make a case for Favre or Michael Bennett or....who am I kidding, this one is about as obvious as Juice's.
Your's truly is next (32 - 12.5%). I find myself the highest (or lowest - half full/half empty kind of thing) I've ever been in the lottery. I'm sure my keeper selection isn't too much of a conundrum. I've kept Shaun the last two years, but then again I kept Eddie in '00 so maybe I'll do that again since I just love having that guy on my squad. Or I could keep one of my bookshelf bust QB's from a year ago, but I think that its pretty clear that Mr. Alexander will not be available to whoever wins the lottery and ends up with the first selection.
Team Jen (64 - 25.1%) is up next. As the newest member of the 'left hand tan line' club (which now consists of three and soon to be four league owners), Jonny is rewarded with the 2nd most tickets in the lottery....ok not really, but I'm getting hungry and dillusional as I'm finishing this column up. Nevertheless, Jonny does have about a 1 in 4 shot at getting the top pick. I think there is pretty much no question that he is going to keep the 2004 Super Bowl MVP - Daunte Culpepper. Really, its either that or C-Mart....and that's a BIG dropoff just to keep a RB....even I, your RB loving commish would keep the big guy.
Last but not least is the man who needs to get his late August priorities straight - Suomala's Flying Hellfish (128 - 50.2%). It will be another remote draft for the man doing God's work out in Wyoming and I believe it is good luck when your first born comes on draft night....and even better luck when you remember to call the Mrs. between picks and congratulate her. So the 'Fish are pretty slim as far as pickings....could it be the NFL's lone Ricky Williams? or Bubba Gump Franks? No....this one is another easy pick....Starvin Marvin will become the first WR to be kept in consecutive seasons in this league. I suspect that Marvin will bounce back from his 'down' year last year of 94-1272-10 and give the 'Fish a needed boost in '04.
So that is what I think....who does that leave on the board? Well here are the top available players (in no particular order of course) if I happen to be right....
QB's
D.McNabb
P.Manning
S.McNair
RB's
E.James
D.McAllister
C.Portis
M.Faulk
R.Williams?
WR's
T.Owens
C.Johnson
T.Holt
R.Moss
That's enough for today....I must eat or I'm in trouble
P.S. - Why did I sit and write this on such a nice day? I've already walked 54 holes of golf this weekend and needed a break, so there.
Need I say more?
BIGFFBL senior writer Jeremy Carlson (TEQ) sounds off whenever he feels like it
on www.bigffbl.com